When Doing "EXCESSIVE" Right Goes Wrong!
Simply, when we assume that our objective interventions operate in isolation, we risk magnifying unintended effects!!!!! Btw do you know if Kaito is worth dating? No? You will tho by the end of this!!!
The British colonial government wanted to reduce the number of dangerous cobras in Delhi by offering a bounty for every dead cobra. This was a logical and seemingly “right” solution. People began breeding cobras to collect more bounties. The population of cobras temporarily increased instead of decreasing. When the government discovered the manipulation and ended the program, breeders released the now-worthless cobras into the wild. The final cobra population became higher than before the intervention.
The population model with an incentive term B (representing breeding due to bounty) shows:
P(t+1) = P(t) + rP(t) + B
Where:
P(t)= current cobra population
rP(t)= natural growth of cobras
B= extra increase due to breeding for bounties
Hence, good intentions without systemic thinking lead to worse outcomes.
Probability of Failure Model: Murphy’s Law Quantified:
Even when intentions are right, real-world success often depends on how well we manage complexity, urgency, and resources. A simplified model helps us quantify the risk of failure:
P(f) = (αC + βU) / S
Where:
P(f)= probability of failure
C= complexity of the system
U= urgency or time pressure
S= skill level or resources
α, β= constants representing how sensitive the outcome is to complexity and urgency
Example:
C = 5, U = 3, S = 4, α = 0.1, β = 0.2
P(f) = [ (0.1 × 5) + (0.2 × 3) ] /4
P(f) = 0.275
Thus, there is a 27.5% chance of failure under these conditions — showing that even with good intentions, complexity and urgency can easily push outcomes in the wrong direction.
One rainy evening, in a city where the air always smelled faintly of coffee and iron, a man named Kaito decided to fix what was broken.
The first thing he tried to fix was the stray cats in his neighborhood. He started feeding them, thinking a full stomach would keep them from fighting. The cats multiplied. Soon the alleyways hissed and growled, echoing with the sound of a thousand hungry mouths. The neighbors blamed him, and the city declared the cats a problem. He tried to catch them, but they slipped into the cracks of the night.
He wondered: When did my kindness turn into chaos?
Somewhere, far from Kaito’s city, a mathematician wrote an equation on a napkin:
P(f) = (αC + βU) / S
It meant that the chance of failure grows when the world is too complex (C), when time (U) presses too hard, and when your strength (S) is not enough.
Kaito didn’t know the equation, but he felt it ticking in his bones. The bird he saved flew into a shop window. The garden he planted grew wild and choked his neighbor’s fence. Kaito’s city was full of stories like his. The city was a snake eating its tail, always swallowing its own solutions.
One night, waiting for a train that never came, Kaito met a woman with a red umbrella. She said she was a dream collector. He asked her why good dreams so often turned into nightmares. She smiled softly and said:
"Because people water a tree without looking at its roots. They chase the light and forget the shadow it casts. Even the moon has a dark side, but it still shines."
Kaito learned something that night. Doing the right thing is not about fighting the rain or controlling the cats or solving the city. It is about listening to the rhythm of the world, moving with it instead of forcing it to bend.
The next morning, he still fed the cats — but only enough for them to wander elsewhere. He still helped the bird — but this time, he left the window open.
And as he walked through the city, he whispered to himself:
"Do right, but do it gently. The world is fragile. Even the kindest hand can break it."
